After a dramatic U.S. Open, the PGA Tour is back in action this weekend with an elevated event at Cromwell, Connecticut, for the Travelers Championship.
The tournament is held at TPC River Highlands, the second-shortest course on Tour at 6,852 yards. The course will be playing at a par 70 with the greens being a bent/poa blend.
The way I have I been betting golf for years is picking five outright winners and picking five placement bets. Winning an outright is awesome, but most of the time if you’re smart with finding value in placement bets, you will make money consistently every tournament.
This doesn’t mean we wont find a winner this week, hopefully my analysis and picks can help you cash, and at least pay for your drinks this weekend!
This year I have cashed six outright winners. My biggest payout of the year was Justin Rose at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am at +3200.
When I look at outrights each week there are many factors to look at. I like looking at golfers’ past history at the course. For example, do they play here often? Do they make the cut? Have they ever expressed in an interview if they like, or dislike the place? And have they finished well here in the past?
After looking at course history I also like looking at how has a player played lately. Is this golfer in form his past five tournaments? Did he find something last week in his game? How many strokes is he gaining off the tee, and throughout the course?
Lastly, I like to look if the golfer’s game fits the course they are playing this week. TPC River Highlands, unlike a lot of courses on Tour right now, is not great for bombers of the golf ball. So let’s dive right into our picks for the week!
Viktor Hovland / Win / +2000
What’s not to like about this young man’s game. Viktor comes into the Travelers finishing top 20 at the U.S. Open, winning The Memorial, and finishing second at the PGA Championship. Viktors recent form has been great not missing a cut since last year. Viktor hasn’t played in the Travelers since finishing 11th in 2020 and 54th in 2019. With this event now being elevated and more cash on the line, he is back. I love Viktor this week because he is currently one of the best ball strikers on tour. His biggest struggle entering this year was his short game and he’s cleaned that up recently, by actually gaining 1.1 strokes around the green in his past five tournaments. With his shot-making ability and being able to hunt pins he should have a great week.
Tom Kim / Win / +3500
Kim also fits the narrative this week. Not the longest driver, but this week he doesn’t have to worry about distance. His irons should play great here and he should be hunting pins most of the weekend. This tournament could turn into a birdie fest and we know Tom Kim is going to be able to keep up if that happens. Kim missed two cuts back to back before the US Open, but then he posted an eighth place finish. What was so impressive about that performance was of course it was at a major, but also Kim gained 7.5 strokes on his approach shots and 3.3 strokes putting. If Kim can consistency hit greens this week, like he did last week, he could get really hot and win this thing.
Si Woo Kim / Win / +4500
Now we are starting to get into some big odds that gets the people excited! Si Woo Kim is a fan favorite on tour and he deserves a lot of the love recently. Si Woo has a win under his belt this year and he’s only missed one cut in the last month and a half. Just like our other bets, Si Woo isn’t going to be driving the ball 350 yards, but this week that’s not going to hurt him. He is going to hit fairways and have great looks this week from 180 yards and in. In his last five starts, Si Woo his gaining strokes in every category and his putter is finally starting to wake up. Before the U.S. Open, he was losing strokes putting for three straight weeks and then during the Open he gained 1.5 strokes putting. If Si Woo can putt consistently this week, watch out!
Sahith Theegala / Win / +6000
Another fan favorite, many might remember Sahith finished second here last year. We also know Sahith has been having troubles off the tee. The man can’t find a fairway some days, but he can scramble and make pars. This week we know you don’t have to be great off the tee to win here. We also know Sahith can put up a great score here. The biggest question will be can Sahith put four rounds together this weekend?
Denny McCarthy / Win / +8000
Now I’m breaking one of the my rules. Denny has never played well here. He missed the cut last year and finished T-73 the year before, but it just doesn’t make sense! Denny’s game fits this place perfectly. Denny isn’t the longest hitter on tour, but he should be able to find fairways here and attack. Denny is one the best putters on tour, so if the rest of his game can follow this week, we could see a performance like the Memorial, where he lost to Hovland in a playoff. In his past five tournaments he has gained 5.7 strokes putting. More importantly, in Denny’s last five tournaments, he has only missed one cut and has finished in the top 30 three times. I think Denny is getting overlooked this week and who doesn’t love a long bomb at 80/1.
My favorite bets every week in the golf market are placements (T10, T20, and T40). This is where, in my opinion, you can find some great value. Let’s be honest: We are betting golf, not the biggest gambling
sport in the world. So sometimes I think the gambling books might put some great odds out there and
I’m here to help you catch them.
Patrick Cantlay / Top 10 / +135
He may disappoint us all at majors, but boy does Patrick Cantlay love playing here. Every interview he
does, he expresses how much he loves this golf course. Cantlay has played here the last 5 years and he
has never finished outside of the top 15! If you have a boost on any gambling website use it on Cantlay
to win, also. I just hate betting a golf outright that’s only 11/1.
Ludvig Åberg / Top 40 / +135
The books are giving you plus-money odds on a guy that might be one of the best golfers in the world by
2025. In his last three tournaments he has finished 25th, 61st and 24th. Åberg was ranked the best amateur
golfer in the world in 2022 and he’s looking to become a mainstay on the PGA tour.
Brian Harman / Top 40 / -110
Another guy that loves this course is the lefty veteran Brian Harman. In five years he’s only missed the cut
one time and he’s finished top-eight in the other four years. He’s also coming off of a respectable 43 rd place at the U.S. Open.